Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:12 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
This prediction concerns the first government formed in Israel after the 2026 Knesset election. An appointment counts only if the Knesset approves that government in a confidence vote, or later approves the person's appointment to it; interim and caretaker ministers do not count, and later replacements do not change the first qualifying appointment. A successor post counts only if reliable reporting confirms it keeps the main responsibilities of the Justice ministry; a post that takes over only secondary duties does not. If those main responsibilities are divided among several successor posts, the appointee whose full name comes first alphabetically is treated as the minister. YES if Gilad Kariv is the first person to take office as Israel's Minister of Justice in that government by 11:59 PM ET on 28 February 2027. If someone else is the first to take that office, or nobody qualifies by then, NO. Official information from the Government of Israel decides; agreement among reputable reports may also be used. All times are Eastern Time.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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