Will a member quit the BRICS bloc by 31 Dec?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.

Category

geopolitics

Closes

2026-12-31 00:00 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:26 UTC

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Answer options

• Yes7%
• No93%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

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