When will Warsh's run as Fed chair end?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices December 31, 2026 at a 3% chance and June 30, 2027 at 10%.

Category

economy

Closes

2026-12-31 23:59 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:26 UTC

This market resolves to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. Otherwise, it resolves to “No”. A departure is considered announced if Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve, or an authorized representative publicly and definitively states that Warsh has ceased to be Chair of the Federal Reserve or will cease to hold that position. Announcements of resignation, removal, or any other form of departure will all qualify, regardless of when the departure actually takes effect. Only announcements describing a departure intended to take effect within 18 months of the announcement date will qualify. For example, statements such as “I will leave office in two years” or “I will not be in office forever” would not qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary changes to Warsh’s duties do not qualify. The following do not count as public and definitive announcements: statements that Warsh is considering leaving or is open to leaving; conditional statements that he will depart only if certain conditions are met; an offered resignation that still requires acceptance and remains pending or has been rejected; media reports claiming he plans to leave; sarcastic or joking remarks; and statements made by anyone other than Warsh, the relevant governing authority, or their authorized representatives. If Warsh holds the position on a fixed term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he will leave before that scheduled end date will qualify. If Warsh formally leaves office before the end of his scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will still resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.