Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican margin 3-6% at a 24% chance, ahead of Republican margin 0-3% at 24% and Democratic margin 0-3% at 16%.
Exactly one listed bracket receives YES for the 2026 NY-01 House election, expected on 3 November 2026. Determine the margin as the absolute percentage-point difference between the first- and second-place candidates, with each percentage computed from that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. Democratic and Republican nominees are the party options; independent candidates are not included in either party option. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents that party. A value exactly between two listed ranges goes into the higher range. If candidates tie for first, two listed candidates are resolved to the lower margin range for the one whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically; a listed candidate tied with an unlisted candidate gets the lower margin range for the listed candidate; a tie only among unlisted candidates is Other. When a party option is represented only as Democrat or Republican, use that candidate's ballot surname for this tie-break. The official vote count after it becomes official controls; the certifying state authority's result is primary, while a strong agreement among reliable reports may also be used. A recount started before the vote is official keeps the prediction open until the recount finishes and the vote is official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, Other applies.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
