Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration at any point between market creation and 05:59 CET on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisers, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced through official government channels. Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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