Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Spider-Man: Brand New Day at a 37% chance and Avengers: Doomsday at 56%.
A listed film is YES if it records the second-highest domestic opening-weekend gross of all films released in 2026. Figures come from each film's page at The Numbers (the-numbers.com), in its Weekend Box Office Performance table, once the three-day opening figures are final rather than studio estimates. The Numbers' domestic figure is used whether it covers the US alone or the US and Canada, and only the Friday-to-Sunday total counts, even when a film opens over four or five days. Films are ranked by that opening gross; where two or more films are exactly level, alphabetical order of their full titles as listed by The Numbers breaks the tie, and the film in second place after this ranking is YES. Dune: Part Three is the Dune sequel based on the novel Dune Messiah, due in December 2026. Once final figures show that two other films opened higher than a listed film, it can no longer finish second and may be settled NO at once. At most one listed film is YES. If the film in second place is not one of the listed films, every listed film is NO. If The Numbers has no final figures by 31 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, a different reliable box-office source is used instead.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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