Will Canada see its biggest population drop ever?

As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 17% chance and No at 83%.

Category

economy

Closes

2027-05-01 03:59 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-11 01:28 UTC

YES applies if Canada’s population decrease from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026 exceeds every other annual decrease in the historical record. Use Statistics Canada’s quarterly population-estimates release for the fourth quarter of 2026. If that quarter’s figure is unavailable when the next quarter’s data is scheduled in its published local time, use the latest available quarter exactly as then published. Only the initial release of the referenced estimate counts; later revisions, including those in a subsequent estimate, are ignored. NO applies if the decline does not set the record or the applicable published data cannot establish YES.

Answer options

• Yes17%
• No83%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

Reported by versus Markets