Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 98% chance and No at 2%.
YES applies if the sum of all DefiLlama “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in calendar 2026 exceeds $2.5 billion. Recalculate from the newest figures whenever the table changes before the limit is met. DefiLlama's hacks page is the primary source; if it becomes permanently unavailable, use another credible crypto-data source. NO applies at $2.5 billion or below. The calculation includes the listed 2026 incident entries only. Calendar-year accounting uses ET dates.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
