Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:19 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if Evangelina Moreno Guerra is elected Governor of the Mexican state of Baja California in the 2027 election, currently set for 6 June 2027; if that vote is moved to another date in 2027, the rescheduled vote counts. If anyone else is elected, NO. Someone who serves only as interim or caretaker governor does not count as the winner. If no definitive result is known by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Broad agreement among reliable election reporting decides the winner. If there is any ambiguity, only the official results published by government bodies of Baja California and of Mexico decide, including the state electoral institute of Baja California (IEEBC) and Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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