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As of 30 October 2026, 09:02 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
Voters in the Mexican state of Campeche will choose 35 state-congress deputies on 6 June 2027. YES if the Labor Party (PT) ranks first after the complete official count; otherwise NO. Rank parties first by the seats each party receives. When parties have equal seat totals, compare valid votes for their proportional-representation lists, with the larger total ranking higher. If that comparison is also tied, the party name earliest alphabetically among Morena, PAN, PRI, PVEM, PT and MC, using these short names, ranks higher. Count each district seat for the party to which the final official result assigns the elected deputy under the registered coalition or common-candidacy agreement; do not treat a coalition as a single party. Count each proportional-representation seat for the party receiving that allocation. Ignore later switches of party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership. If a party other than the Labor Party (PT) ranks highest, whether or not it appears in this list, NO. If no definitive result is available by 31 March 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Official final results from the Campeche electoral institute (IEEC), together with other official Mexican electoral information, decide; reputable news reports may be consulted to clarify those results.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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