Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Abbott 3-6% at a 20% chance, ahead of Abbott 0-3% at 18% and Abbott 6-9% at 18%.
This prediction is about the general election for Governor of Texas, scheduled for 3 November 2026, and asks which party's nominee finishes first and by how many points. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes counted in the race. The Abbott bands stand for the Republican Party's nominee (Greg Abbott) and the Hinojosa bands for the Democratic Party's nominee (Gina Hinojosa). A band is YES only if its candidate finishes first and the margin lies inside that band. A margin exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. Independent and minor-party candidates stand for neither party. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, that party's answers follow the replacement nominee. If anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee finishes first, every answer is NO. If first place is shared by two or more candidates with equal votes, the lowest band of the party nominee among them is YES (if both nominees are tied, the one whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically); if neither nominee is among the tied candidates, every answer is NO. The count is used once it has been made official; if a recount begins before that, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is still not definitively known on 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. At most one answer is YES. Official results from the Texas state election authority that certifies the result decide; overwhelming agreement in reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
