Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 30% chance and No at 70%.
YES if Turkey becomes formally part of the F-35 program again at any time from 14 July 2026 through 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. That happens when at least one of these takes place: (1) the F-35 Joint Program Office officially lists Turkey either as an F-35 Partner or among its F-35 Foreign Military Sales customers; or (2) the U.S. federal government officially announces Turkey's signature or acceptance of a Letter of Offer and Acceptance under the Foreign Military Sales program covering F-35 aircraft or components of the F-35. Statements of intent, talks, sanctions relief, waivers or certifications concerning legal restrictions, notices to Congress, and broad statements that Washington supports or is weighing selling F-35s to Turkey do not count by themselves; one of the events above must still happen. Once a qualifying event has happened the answer is YES, even if it is later reversed, suspended or cancelled. Official information from the U.S. federal government and the F-35 Joint Program Office decides; reliable news coverage is also taken into account. If no qualifying event happens in that period, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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