Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
YES applies if, by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, a justice of Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) loses the seat for good as the result of an impeachment, meaning a Federal Senate trial over a crime of responsibility (crime de responsabilidade), the political offence for which such justices can be impeached. Leaving the court for any other reason does not count, including term limits, the mandatory retirement age, voluntary resignation, or loss of office after an ordinary criminal conviction. An impeachment request, an opened trial, a suspension or any other procedural step is not enough unless it ends with the justice being removed for good. NO applies otherwise. Official information from the Brazilian government decides; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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