Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:52 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
This market resolves Yes if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile on or before January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET; otherwise it resolves No. The agreement may be unilateral or part of a deal with another party, and an agreement to surrender any portion of the stockpile counts. Resolution is based on official statements from Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @business
