Prediction
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 49% chance and No at 51%.
YES if, between 1 July 2026 at 12:00 AM ET and 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal step aimed at fully or partly suspending the entry of nationals of at least one specific additional country into the United States, whether through an executive order or proclamation, through Trump signing a bill into law, or through any other formal government action. An additional country is one whose nationals faced no full or partial entry suspension as of the presidential proclamation of 16 December 2025 that widened US entry restrictions; harsher measures against a country that was already covered do not count. The action has to target one or more named countries: general limits on certain visa categories, or other restrictions that apply whatever a traveller's nationality, do not count. A formal action taken inside this window counts even if it only takes effect later, or if a court or anything else halts or delays it straight away. Announced or planned bans that are never made official through a government action do not count. Otherwise NO. Official information from the US federal government (for example the White House and the Federal Register) decides; reliable news reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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