Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 57% chance and No at 43%.
YES requires an in-person diplomatic session involving authorized representatives of Russia and Ukraine by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with the purpose of negotiating a ceasefire, peace agreement, or another substantive reduction of the conflict. An authorized in-person mediation can qualify even when the national principals are in different rooms. A humanitarian-only session is excluded unless it also contains substantive discussion of broader peace terms, such as a ceasefire, territorial arrangements, security guarantees, or a peace agreement. Greetings, accidental encounters, and conversations without a deliberate diplomatic or negotiating purpose are excluded. The event must be acknowledged by Russia or Ukraine, or supported by agreement among reputable media. Phone calls, remote sessions, and sessions lacking attendance by the concerned participants do not count. Use official Russian and Ukrainian statements first, with reputable reporting to resolve remaining factual questions.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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