Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 16:02 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Remain by 40 to 60 points at a 56% chance, ahead of Remain by 20 to 40 points at 21% and Remain by 60 to 80 points at 18%.
Settles on the margin by which Remain beats Leave in Alberta's referendum of 19 October 2026, on Question 10 on the ballot, which offers two options: that Alberta remain a province of Canada ("Remain"), or that the provincial government start the constitutional legal process for holding a binding provincial referendum on separating from Canada ("Leave"). The margin is the absolute gap between Remain's percentage and Leave's percentage of the valid votes, each percentage being that option's valid votes as a share of every valid vote cast on Question 10. Each answer names one range of that margin: 80 points or more, 60 to 80, 40 to 60, 20 to 40, or under 20; a further answer, Leave wins, covers the case where Leave gets more valid votes than Remain. Only the answer that contains the reported result settles YES, and every other answer settles NO. A margin exactly on the boundary between two ranges counts toward the higher range. If the two options receive exactly the same number of valid votes, the under-20 range applies. The primary source is the official results released by the Alberta government, Elections Alberta included, once the count is official; overwhelming agreement among credible reports may also suffice. If a recount begins before the total is official, settlement waits until the recount ends and the resulting total is official. Should the vote be formally moved to a date before 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026, these rules govern the new ballot and the deadlines that go with it. If the result is not definitively known, or no qualifying referendum vote takes place, by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026, the outcome is Other and every listed answer settles NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
