Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:18 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 13% chance and No at 87%.
YES if the Democratic nominee finishes first in the 2026 election for governor of Hawaii, held on 3 November 2026, and wins by 25 to 30 points; if the Democrat wins by any other margin, or the Republican nominee or anyone else finishes first, NO. The margin is the official gap in percentage points between the top two finishers, each share being that candidate's valid ballots divided by the total valid ballot count. A margin landing exactly on the edge between two bands counts in the higher band, so each band runs from its lower edge up to just below its upper edge. The Democrat means the Democratic nominee, including a replacement named before election day; an independent never counts as the Democrat. In a tie for first place, only the Democrat's lowest band (under 10 points) can be YES: that happens when the Democratic nominee ties with the Republican nominee and has the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, or ties with a candidate who is not a party nominee; every other tie is NO. Hawaii's certified count decides; a recount begun before certification keeps the outcome open until the recount is complete and official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The certifying state authority is the main evidence, and broadly corroborated journalism may supplement it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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