Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 11:24 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This prediction concerns the 2026 election for Texas's 16th US House district, expected on 3 Nov 2026. Calculate each candidate's vote share by dividing their valid-vote total by the valid votes cast for all candidates, then multiplying by 100. The winning margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the two highest shares. YES if the Democratic Party nominee wins with a margin of at least 5 percentage points but less than 15. All other outcomes settle NO: a Democratic margin below 5 or at least 15, a win by any other candidate, or an Other outcome. Exactly 5 points is included; exactly 15 is excluded, because a shared boundary belongs to the band above it. Democrat and Republican refer to their respective parties' nominees, never to independents. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, use the replacement nominee. Any tie for first place settles NO for this prediction. Use the vote total once it has become official. A recount started before that point must finish and the resulting total must become official before settlement. If no definitive election result is known at 23:59 Eastern Time (ET) on 30 Jun 2027, the outcome is Other and this prediction settles NO. That cutoff also applies when a delay or cancellation leaves the election without a definitive result. The Texas electoral authority responsible for certification provides the primary evidence through its official election results. An overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also establish the outcome.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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