Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:02 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.
This prediction covers the Baja California gubernatorial election scheduled for 6 Jun 2027. YES if Gustavo Macalpin is the listed winner of that election; a caretaker or interim governor does not qualify as a winning candidate. Anything else is NO. If the result is not definitively known by 23:59 ET on 31 Dec 2027, settle NO. Consistent reports from reputable outlets may identify the result; if reports conflict, official results from the Baja California electoral authority and Mexico's National Electoral Institute control.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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