Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if the Republican nominee finishes first with a winning margin of less than 5 percentage points in the 2026 general election for the US House seat of Texas's 12th congressional district, scheduled for 3 November 2026; otherwise NO. The winning margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first-place and second-place finishers, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the contest. A margin exactly on the line between two ranges belongs to the higher range. Republican and Democrat mean the candidates nominated by those parties; independent candidates count for neither party. If a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement takes over that party's answers. If two or more candidates tie for first place, only tied Democratic and Republican nominees are considered: the one whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically (or the only one) is treated as the winner with the smallest margin range for that party; if no Democratic or Republican nominee is among those tied, or the winner belongs to neither party, every answer is NO. The official vote count decides once it has been certified; if a recount begins before certification, the prediction stays open until the recount ends and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. The certified results of the Texas state election authority are the primary basis for settlement; overwhelming agreement among credible news reports may be used if needed. At most one answer is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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