Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation or removal made before this market's end date will resolve the market to "Yes" immediately, regardless of when that resignation or removal takes effect. If he is detained, effectively removed from the position, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out its duties within this market's timeframe, that will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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