Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if Ye (the rapper formerly called Kanye West) gets arrested in Russia between 19 August 2026 and 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. An arrest counts when law enforcement in Russia takes him into physical custody, whether he goes voluntarily or not, and at least one of these applies: he is booked or processed as a criminal suspect; he is held under a criminal arrest warrant, a criminal charge, an indictment or a similar criminal charging document; he is kept in custody for an arraignment, a bail hearing, extradition or another criminal court step, other than as a witness; or he is taken to a police station, an immigration detention centre or a similar criminal law-enforcement facility. A warrant, indictment or charge without physical custody is not enough. On their own, these do not count: a short detention, questioning or an interview, a search, house arrest, electronic tagging, protective custody, witness protection or a medical hold. Once a qualifying arrest has happened, release on bail, recognisance or bond, dropped or withdrawn charges, acquittal, pardon or any other later development does not change the result. Otherwise NO. Official information from the Russian government and the arresting law-enforcement authorities decides; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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