Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 51% chance and No at 49%.
YES applies if the upper edge of the Federal Reserve target federal-funds range is reduced at any time from 16 December 2025 through completion of the July 2027 FOMC meeting, including an emergency cut. If no July meeting occurs by 7 August 2027 at 11:59 PM ET and no qualifying cut has been announced, the outcome is NO. The official Federal Reserve open-market page is primary evidence, with credible reporting as corroboration. A cut must lower the upper bound, not merely change wording.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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