Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Zach Nunn (R) at a 22% chance and Sarah Trone Garriott (D) at 77%.
YES goes to the answer for the party whose candidate wins the U.S. House seat for Iowa's 3rd congressional district (IA-03) at the 2026 midterm election, held on 3 November 2026. 'Sarah Trone Garriott (D)' stands for the Democratic Party and 'Zach Nunn (R)' for the Republican Party; each answer follows the party, so it still applies if that party's winning candidate is someone else. The winner's party is the one shown on the ballot or otherwise clearly identifiable at the moment broad agreement among reliable news reports shows every 2026 House race as conclusively called. A winner with neither a Democratic nor a Republican ballot label counts for whichever of these two parties they most recently said they intend to caucus with at that moment. If the winner cannot be assigned to either party in this way, both answers are NO; at most one answer can be YES. There is no fixed cutoff: the answer is settled once the winner is conclusively known, and dates here are in Eastern Time (ET). Broad agreement among reliable news reports decides the result; if that leaves any ambiguity, the official results published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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