Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:55 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
Count valid votes in Arkansas's US Senate contest at the 2026 midterm election. YES for a total of at least 675,000 and fewer than 750,000; otherwise NO. A boundary shared by two ranges belongs to the higher range: exactly 675,000 counts here, while exactly 750,000 does not. Include certified votes for candidates and for non-candidate ballot choices. Exclude blank entries and votes that have been invalidated. If preferential voting or multiple rounds are used, take the first-round total only. If a definitive result is unavailable on 31 Mar 2027 at 23:59 ET, the lowest turnout range wins; that is below 600,000, so this prediction settles NO. The primary evidence is the official total issued by Arkansas's election authority responsible for certification. An overwhelming agreement across reputable news reporting may also establish the result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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