Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES goes to the listed party whose candidate wins the 2026 U.S. House election for New Jersey's 11th congressional district (NJ-11), held as part of the midterm elections on 3 November 2026 (ET). Each candidate's party is the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation in force at the moment every 2026 House race has been conclusively called by the election reporting described below; the party is fixed at that moment, not earlier. A winner who has neither a Democratic nor a Republican ballot label is counted with whichever of those two parties they most recently said they intend to caucus with, as of that same moment. If the winner cannot be counted as a Democrat or a Republican this way, both listed parties are NO; otherwise the matching party is YES and the other is NO. The result follows broad agreement among reputable election reports; if those reports leave it ambiguous, only the official result published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) counts. No deadline applies after election day: the outcome is settled as soon as the winner's party can be fixed as described above.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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