Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 83% chance and No at 17%.
YES applies if Greta Thunberg undergoes an official arrest or detention after this question was created and by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying situations include actual custody by law-enforcement personnel at any level: local, state or federal, as well as military or international authorities. Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement in response to an arrest warrant qualifies. So do booking or formal processing after custody, being handcuffed by state officers and transported to a police station, and surrendering with counsel at a courthouse or police station. Electronic monitoring and house arrest count too. A temporary stay in a detention facility while a judge considers issuing a detention warrant qualifies if law enforcement holds her officially. Merely issuing a warrant without executing it does not count; neither does an indictment without arrest, nor an interview or questioning without arrest. Otherwise NO applies. Evidence from the arresting government and law-enforcement bodies takes priority; an agreed account from reliable news reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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