Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 23 October 2026, 23:23 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if Carolyn Hofbauer wins the Surrey-Fleetwood seat in British Columbia's legislature at the next full-term election, with the term starting in October 2026 or later; the provincial general election electing all 93 members is scheduled for 24 October 2026. Otherwise NO. If any other candidate, listed or not, wins the seat, NO. If no definitive result is available by 11:59 PM ET on 31 March 2027, NO. The winner is first taken from agreement among reputable election reports; where those leave doubt, the published Elections BC result (elections.bc.ca) alone decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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