Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Dilution of Iran's Uranium at a 17% chance, ahead of Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) at 14% and ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) at 14%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if, by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET, the United States and Iran have mutually signed, or otherwise formally adopted, a written diplomatic instrument that sets a specific percentage cap on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, with that commitment lasting for at least one year. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” To qualify, the instrument must set a specific percentage ceiling that applies generally to the level at which Iran may enrich uranium for any purpose. Vague or non-specific language about Iranian enrichment levels, such as “lower levels,” “civilian grade,” or “maintain the status quo,” will not qualify. A cap may still qualify if it refers to a publicly recognized benchmark percentage, such as JCPOA-levels, even without stating the number itself. A commitment by Iran to end all uranium enrichment also qualifies, since that would amount to a 0% cap. The cap must be committed for at least one year. A permanent cap qualifies. A cap with no stated end date also qualifies unless it is explicitly described as short-term, provisional, or temporary. A cap lasting less than one year does not qualify, even if the text says it could later be extended. The cap must be a present obligation, not just a future negotiating objective. A presently agreed obligation qualifies even if technical or procedural details, including implementation timing or monitoring arrangements, are still to be worked out later. But if the core commitment is explicitly left for a future agreement, negotiation, or follow-on instrument, it does not qualify. A term framed only as a minimum demand for later talks also does not qualify. Unless the instrument is formally adopted without signature, it must be signed by both the United States and Iran. That can mean both sign the same document, or each signs a separate document that clearly and substantively accepts the same underlying instrument, even if there are minor wording, formatting, or translation differences. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures count. If the instrument is one that both countries recognize as not requiring signature, formal adoption without signature also qualifies. That may be shown by an official joint statement saying the instrument has been adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized; by mutual official confirmation that both countries agreed to the same published instrument; by adoption or approval through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or similar institutional act; or by an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be determined primarily from its officially released text. The instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both countries by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. If that happens by the deadline but the full text has not yet been released, and there is genuine material ambiguity about whether the instrument meets this market’s requirements, the market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the deadline while the text is awaited. If the text still has not been released after 28 days, official and definitive statements from the United States or Iran, together with a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to decide whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument can still qualify if other parties besides the United States and Iran are also signatories, so long as both the United States and Iran are parties to it and all other requirements are met. Once a qualifying diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran, and confirmed to satisfy these rules, the market condition is met. That remains true even if the instrument later fails to enter into force, is not ratified, does not receive legislative or treaty consent, or is later repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by either side. The primary resolution sources are official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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