Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state, before 05:59 CET on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting or interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognised as holding the head-of-state office at that time. For the purposes of this market, "capture" means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including by arrest, detention or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention or custody. U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g. raiding, detaining, securing, or physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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