Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 23:09 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES if NEC ends the league phase of the 2026-27 Europa League (UEFA's second-tier club competition) with a better goal difference than every other club; if another club has the best goal difference, NO. Only matches from the league phase count; qualifying rounds, the play-off round played before the league phase, and the whole knockout stage including its own play-offs are left out. If two or more clubs share the best goal difference, the one that scored more goals in the league phase ranks first; if they are still level, the club whose name comes first alphabetically ranks first, and it is YES only if NEC comes out on top. If the league phase is cut short or ended early for whatever reason, the official results of the matches that were completed decide. If the league phase is cancelled, is pushed past 28 February 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader has been declared by that time, NO. Official UEFA records decide; consistent reporting from reputable news outlets may be used as a fallback.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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