Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices Eric Jones at a 25% chance and Mike Thompson at 76%.
YES goes to the listed candidate who wins the U.S. House seat for California's 4th congressional district (CA-04) in the 2026 midterm elections, with the general election held on 3 November 2026; the other listed candidate is NO. If the winner is not one of the listed candidates, both listed answers are NO, so at most one answer can be YES. Agreement among reliable news reports on the winner decides. If that reporting leaves any ambiguity, only the official results published by the U.S. government decide, in particular those of the Federal Election Commission (FEC). There is no fixed cut-off date: the prediction stays open until the winner is known. Dates in these rules are in ET.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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