Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
YES applies if, by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026, Andy Burnham, the UK government or their authorized representatives publicly state definitively that he has left or will leave the UK premiership. Resignation, removal and other departures qualify. The intended departure must be within eighteen months of the announcement; the actual departure date need not precede the prediction’s cutoff. Temporary changes in duties, including temporary leave and suspensions of any duration, do not qualify. Neither contemplating departure, conditional statements, sarcasm or jokes, nor resignation offers awaiting acceptance or already refused qualify. Reports of future plans and statements from unauthorized people are insufficient. Where a predefined term has a scheduled end, only an announced departure before that end qualifies. If he actually leaves before the end of a scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, agreement across credible reports confirming that departure by the cutoff also gives YES. Otherwise NO applies. Official Burnham and UK government information is primary; agreement across credible reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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