Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:03 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 31% chance and No at 69%.
Resolves YES if a written diplomatic text that places Canada in associate membership of the European Union, or in a standing that comes to the same thing, has been put in place by both sides on or before 11:59 PM US Eastern Time on 31 December 2027 - either through signature or, where no signature is needed, through formal adoption. Otherwise NO. The text has to describe itself as creating associate membership, the standing of an associate member, or a standing worded differently that comes to the same thing; the word equivalent itself need not appear in it. A proposal, an invitation, a declared intention, talks under way, or anything done by only one of the two sides all fall short. Arrangements that already exist in research, mobility, trade or defence, and arrangements confined to one of those fields, do not qualify on their own either. Where signatures are used, both parties have to sign: Canada on one side and, on the other, the European Union as an institution or all of its member states acting together. One shared document works, and so do separate documents that substantively and directly show acceptance of the same underlying text, whatever minor differences of layout, wording or translation the signed versions carry; physical signatures count, and officially issued electronic ones do too. Where Canada and the European Union both recognise that the text does not need signing in order to be executed, formal adoption by the two of them without signature qualifies instead. Adoption can be shown by an official joint statement that the two sides have approved, adopted, concluded, executed or otherwise finalised it; by official confirmation from each side that both have agreed, adopted, approved, executed or concluded the same published text; by an official resolution, a ministerial or executive decision or an equivalent institutional act through which a party adopts, approves or endorses it; or by official notes or letters exchanged in diplomatic form between Canada and the European Union, confirming that both accept the same text. Which side of the line a text falls on is judged first from the wording released officially. If both sides sign or formally adopt in time but the complete wording is still unpublished 28 days after that step, definitive official announcements from Ottawa and Brussels about what it contains, or broad agreement among the major news agencies of record, may stand in; if on the closing date the wording is still unpublished and genuine material doubt remains over whether it meets these terms, settlement may be held back until 28 calendar days have passed since adoption. Once both sides have signed or formally adopted a text that meets these terms, the answer stays YES even if it never enters into force, is never ratified, never wins legislative or treaty consent, or is later repudiated, withdrawn from or left unimplemented by either side. Decided by what Ottawa and Brussels state officially, together with the wording released officially (official sources); broad agreement among reliable reports also counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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