Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
This market resolves YES if Mitch McConnell formally announces that he intends to leave the U.S. Senate before his current term ends, or if he otherwise vacates his Senate seat before January 4, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves NO. What qualifies: An announcement counts only if it clearly states that McConnell will leave office before the scheduled conclusion of his current term. What does NOT qualify: Statements that merely repeat or reaffirm his existing plan to retire when his term ends do not count. Resolution source: Official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or authorized representatives, as well as official communications from the U.S. Senate or the U.S. government.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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