Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves based on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index values for each month of 2026 compared with all historical values for that same calendar month. If any month in 2026 is the hottest recorded instance of that month, this market resolves to “Yes.” Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” If any month in 2026 is tied for the hottest on record for that same month, this market will also resolve to “Yes.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the table titled “GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius” at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt. If NASA’s Global Temperature Index becomes permanently unavailable, other NASA information may be used instead. This market may resolve immediately once data is released for any month that satisfies the condition for a “Yes” outcome. If NASA has not published information for all months by February 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET, this market will resolve using a consensus of credible sources.
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