Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 22–23 at a 32% chance, ahead of 24–25 at 26% and <22 at 24%.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. This market resolves according to the party distribution of governorships resulting from the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution is based on all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the outcome, the market remains open until that runoff is conclusively called by the resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but no corresponding election is held in November 2026, that seat is counted as held by the party of its most recent incumbent. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. The resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market resolves once all three have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If the three sources do not reach consensus on the relevant races, resolution is based on official certification.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Pollsmax
