Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 36% chance and No at 64%.
YES applies if, between 4 September 2026 and 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, Anthropic makes a qualifying general-purpose Claude model available to the public. Its name or identifier must include Claude and an explicit version of at least 6; capitalization and extra prefixes, suffixes, dates or descriptors do not matter. Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku and successor general-purpose families qualify. Lower versions and names without an explicit qualifying number do not. Open beta and open rolling waitlist registration count; private access and closed betas do not. A Mythos release restricted to verification or trusted-access programs, or task-specific or restricted products such as Claude Code, Gov or Security, do not qualify alone. Anthropic must either clearly announce public access or provide actual public access with explicit labeling on its official website. Mistaken labels and placeholders without an accessible model are insufficient. Official Anthropic information is primary, with agreement among reliable reports providing additional verification. Otherwise answer NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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