Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices October 31, 2026 at a 1% chance and December 31, 2026 at 12%.
This market resolves YES if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. Otherwise, it resolves NO. What counts as Kimi K4: a product explicitly named Kimi K4, including Kimi K4.0, or a model recognized as the new flagship model or successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. Any model in the Kimi K4 family qualifies. What does NOT count: products labelled Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions. What counts as publicly available: the model must be launched and accessible to the general public, including through an open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. Closed betas and private-access releases do not qualify. The release must either be clearly announced by Moonshot AI as generally accessible, or be publicly accessible and explicitly labelled on the company’s official website. What does NOT count: labelling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not match a model actually accessible to the general public. Resolution source: official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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