Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 14% chance and No at 86%.
This market resolves YES if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and 05:59 CET on 1 January 2027. Otherwise it resolves NO. A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US — for example, a ban on providing a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, because of that ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US. A general removal of public access to a qualifying model still counts even if it does not extend to limited groups or organisations, such as whitelisted firms or individuals holding security clearance. To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify. "Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models — embedding, moderation or single-modality media generation models, for instance — and deprecated, research-only or preview-only models will not qualify. The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of that action. A removal of access for any length of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not brought about the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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