Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES applies if Pete Hegseth takes part in an officially convened senior US-Iran negotiating round after this prediction opened and no later than 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The session must be an intentional, in-person diplomatic meeting involving senior officials of both governments who act in an official capacity and have authority to conduct or direct diplomacy. Authorized in-person mediation counts even when the officials are in different rooms. Follow-on technical discussions from the 22 June Switzerland meeting are not enough on their own. Staff, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, and deconfliction sessions qualify only when they belong to a new senior-level negotiating round. Greetings, accidental encounters, photo or ceremonial appearances, and conversations without a diplomatic or negotiating purpose are excluded. One of the governments must acknowledge the event, or several reputable media reports must support it. Remote or telephone contacts, and events without the relevant parties present, do not count. Hegseth must be physically present and actively participating; any part of a multi-day round is enough. Start with official statements from Hegseth and the two governments, using reputable reports only to resolve remaining facts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
