Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat margin 35% to 40% at a 25% chance, ahead of Democrat margin 50% to 55% at 21% and Democrat margin 45% to 50% at 21%.
YES goes to the answer whose party and margin range match the result of the US House election in Texas's 29th congressional district (TX-29), scheduled for 3 November 2026. The party is that of the candidate who finishes first. The margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates placed first and second, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the race's total valid vote. An answer that names only a winning party, such as "Republican Wins", covers any margin for that party. Democrat and Republican mean the candidates nominated by the Democratic Party and the Republican Party; if a party replaces its nominee before election day, its answers follow the replacement. Independent and other candidates count for neither party. A margin landing exactly on the line between two ranges belongs to the higher range. If first place goes outright to a candidate who is neither the Democratic nor the Republican nominee, every answer is NO. If first place is shared by several candidates: when both party nominees share it, YES goes to the lowest-margin answer of the nominee whose surname, as listed on the ballot, comes earlier in the alphabet ("Republican Wins" for the Republican, "Democrat margin 0% to 20%" for the Democrat); when one party nominee shares it only with other candidates, YES goes to that nominee's lowest-margin answer; when only other candidates share it, every answer is NO. The result is taken from the official vote count once it has been made official; if a recount starts before that, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. At most one answer is YES and all others are NO. The official results published by Texas's state election authority, which certifies the race, decide; broad agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
