Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 370 thousand to 400 thousand votes at a 31% chance, ahead of 340 thousand to 370 thousand votes at 19% and 400 thousand to 430 thousand votes at 18%.
Include each vote the state certifies for a candidate or other listed choice in the 2026 midterm vote for Governor of Hawaii. Leave out blank and invalidated ballots; if the jurisdiction uses ranked-choice or preferential voting, use the first-round count. A total exactly on a bracket edge belongs to the higher bracket. The Hawaii election authority’s certified figures are primary, while strong agreement among trustworthy election reports may also be used. If the result is still not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the lowest bracket is YES. Every other bracket is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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