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As of 30 October 2026, 10:04 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 19% chance and No at 81%.
This prediction compares the first counts in the Maine general elections scheduled for 3 Nov 2026, local time: Troy Jackson for US Senate and Hannah Pingree for governor. The gap is Pingree's percentage share minus Jackson's. YES if the gap is at least 3 but less than 6 percentage points. Any other gap means NO. Compute each share from the certified count: votes for that candidate divided by all valid votes in that candidate's contest, including write-ins. Do not round. Only the initial round counts; ignore any runoff, redistribution of ranked ballots or elimination rounds. A boundary value belongs to the band starting there, so gaps of 3, 6 and 9 enter the higher band. Equal shares belong to the band from zero to below 3; a negative gap means the first-named candidate is ahead. If withdrawal or removal from the ballot leaves a candidate with no recorded votes, treat that candidate's share as zero. Also use zero for any candidate whose share cannot be established by 31 Mar 2027. The Maine Secretary of State provides the certified results; matching reports from reliable news organisations may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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