Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 11:16 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
This prediction covers the three US Senate races in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire on the general election ballot of 3 November 2026, counting any runoff. YES if Republicans win the races in Michigan and New Hampshire and the Democrat wins in Minnesota; otherwise NO. A candidate counts for a party when listed on the ballot with that party or when they are its official nominee; a candidate running as an independent never counts as a Democrat or a Republican, whatever ties they have to either party. In Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) nominee counts as the Democrat. If any of the three seats goes to an independent or to a candidate of a third party, the answer is NO. If the winner of any of the three races is still not conclusively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Settlement happens once AP, NBC and Fox News have each called all three races; if those three outlets do not agree on a race, the official certified result of that race decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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