Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 5% to under 15% at a 79% chance, ahead of Below 5% at 8% and 15% to under 25% at 8%.
YES goes to the band that contains the general US tariff rate on imports from the People's Republic of China at 12:00 PM ET on 31 December 2026. This is the across-the-board base rate: any tariff the US applies to imports from all countries plus any extra tariff applied to imports from China in general (for example, 10% on all imports plus an extra 10% on Chinese imports gives 20%). Tariffs or exemptions that apply only to particular products are ignored, and so is any effective or average rate. Only tariffs in force at that moment count; paused tariffs and tariffs announced but not yet in effect do not. A rate exactly on the boundary between two bands goes to the higher band. Official information from the US government (the Trump administration) decides; reliable news coverage may also be used. Exactly one band is YES and all others are NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
