Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Zuhdi Jasser (R) at a 3% chance and Greg Stanton (D) at 97%.
This prediction concerns the party winning the AZ-04 US House seat at the 3 November 2026 election. The scheduled endpoint is 4 November 2026 at 04:59 UTC; counting or certification may finish later. Exactly one answer receives YES if its associated party wins; the remaining answers receive NO. Candidate names identify party options, so the winner's party determines the result rather than the displayed name alone. Determine affiliation from the ballot or other identifiable party affiliation when every 2026 House race has been conclusively called. For a winner not ballot-listed as Democratic or Republican, use their latest stated intention to caucus with either party at that same point. If neither listed party qualifies, neither answer receives YES. Use agreement among reliable news accounts; if doubt remains, rely exclusively on the Federal Election Commission's official US results (fec.gov). Await that result if counting is delayed; no automatic cancellation or no-result deadline is provided.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
