Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
YES applies if Ekrem İmamoğlu leaves state custody between prediction creation and 23:59 ET on 31 December 2026. House arrest, parole, bond or another status outside state custody qualifies. A transfer to another custodial prison, court or hospital does not, nor does a temporary escorted outing while custody continues. Official government or corrections information leads, with broad agreement among reputable reports also usable. Without a qualifying release by the cutoff, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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