Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
